My Grammys Big 4 Predictions: 2013 Edition
Last year I made a prediction of how the four main categories of the Grammys would look. (see last year’s predictions). With the nominations coming out this week, I’m going to do the same thing this year.
This year’s predictions are slightly more difficult as I don’t have the list of submissions that I had last year. For the last couple years, the entire list of the songs, albums and artists submitted for each award leaked online which helped narrow down the options with things like eligibility and whether an artist favoured one song over another, for example. This year, only a very small portion of the submitted list was leaked.
Based on what I know and what I’ve heard in the form of “Grammy buzz”, these are my predictions.
Album of the Year
It hasn’t been an overly strong year for full albums as 2012 continued to live in the shadow of 21 by Adele. Obviously, that won the Album of the Year for the last Grammy Awards and it can’t be nominated again. Judging the year’s biggest selling albums besides Adele also don’t really help as Taylor Swift‘s Red isn’t eligible because it was released after the period ended and One Direction‘s two albums aren’t typically Grammy-bait.
Drake‘s Take Care has popped up time and time again as a contender and with Grammy voters being more welcoming of hip-hop in recent years, Drake may be the obligatory representative for the genre this year. Another fairly obvious choice, even more so perhaps, is Frank Ocean‘s critically acclaimed channel ORANGE. Frank is being considered for this year’s Grammys what Adele was to last year’s. If that’s the case, he’s a sure bet for this category. Other likely contenders include new Grammy favourites Mumford & Sons for Babel and a possible nod for Ceremonials by Florence & The Machine, though I would have suspected the latter would have been forgotten about by now but it’s a title I’ve seen pop up again and again.
The fifth slot I’m less sure about. Two previous Grammy darlings Norah Jones and Coldplay have both released albums this year (Little Broken Hearts and Mylo Xyloto), though neither have won the success that their older albums have, they’re still possible considerations. That or a wild card in the way of a country album, since country is often represented in this category although I’m thinking this year the genre will sit it out unless someone like Carrie Underwood or Miranda Lambert can do it. Or a completely surprising choice like a jazz record.
My predictions: Drake (Take Care), Florence & The Machine (Ceremonials), Frank Ocean (channel ORANGE), Mumford & Sons (Babel) and Norah Jones (Little Broken Hearts)
Record of the Year
It’s been a pretty strong year for big hits, including the novelty kind and would-be one-hit-wonders. I think this year’s list will include some of those songs as well as some of the more standard picks expected by the Grammy voters.
Frank Ocean and Drake are likely contenders with Thinkin’ About You and Take Care respectively. Take Care also features Rihanna which could work for or against it, although she has been nominated in the main categories before. Representing the rising popularity of indie rock, Florence & The Machine could make an appearance here with Shake It Out. Gotye has been name-dropped since Somebody That I Used To Know was on the rise as a likely contender for this one which leaves one more spot. Carly Rae Jepson could be the surprise pick for this category with the undeniable Call Me Maybe though some attention has been given to fun. (We Are Young), Maroon 5 (Payphone) and Mumford & Sons (I Will Wait) as well.
My predictions: Carly Rae Jepsen (Call Me Maybe), Drake & Rihanna (Take Care), Florence & The Machine (Shake It Out), Frank Ocean (Thinkin’ About You), Gotye & Kimbra (Somebody That I Used To Know)
Song of the Year
Unlike the Record of the Year, this award goes to just the songwriters and is more focused on the arrangement of the song rather than the end result. This is also the category that, of the main four, is likely to have some surprises.
Once again, we have Frank Ocean, Drake and Florence as the front-runners for this category. Although I’m thinking Drake or Florence might not get this one if he gets in the Record category. It would seem too repetitive to have all three in the Album, Record and Song categories. Bruce Springsteen has been mentioned as a contender for this one as his song We Take Care Of Our Own played a role in the hearts of American voters this past year and Bruce is a Grammy favourite, having won 20 awards over the years. I think Mumford & Sons will make it in this one with I Will Wait. Rumour has it, Adele has submitted a song as well, albeit a live version of Set Fire To The Rain that many speculate will get nominated here because, well, it’s Adele. That leaves the fifth option open. It could go to a hit like We Are Young (fun.) or something somewhat surprising like Hey Ho (Lumineers) but I think it will be something completely unexpected and off-the-wall. For the sake of completing this, however, I’m going to say Drake.
My predictions: Adele (Set Fire To The Rain), Bruce Springsteen (We Take Care Of Our Own), Drake (Take Care), Frank Ocean (Thinkin’ About You) and Mumford & Sons (I Will Wait)
Best New Artist
This award is a tough one just because this year has been rampant with new artists. I could select a list of ten and still likely not have them all be in the actual nominations announced this week.
Of the names that I think could be considered are Carly Rae Jepsen, Ellie Goulding, Emeli Sandé, Frank Ocean, fun., Hunter Hayes, Lana Del Ray, Lumineers and One Direction.
It helps when there aren’t too many names from the same genre so Hunter Hayes, Frank Ocean and Emeli Sandé have the benefit of little competition whereas the others are relatively close to pop. I could see the void filled with the Lumineers and One Direction or Carly Rae Jepson (I can’t decide).
My predictions: Carly Rae Jepsen, Emeli Sandé, Frank Ocean, Hunter Hayes and Lumineers
I think Mumford & Sons and Frank Ocean will be the most nominated artists for this year. Like last year, when the nominations come out, I’ll compare and see how close I was.